Alex Jones talks with regular guest Bob Chapman of the International Forecaster about the economy and other issues. Alex covers the latest news and takes your calls.
Friday, September 17, 2010
How To Buy Record High Gold Prices
NEW YORK (TheStreet) -- Phil Streible, senior market strategist at Lind-Waldock, reveals the best way to trade record high gold prices.
Bob Chapman on The Prophecy Zone Radio Blogtalkradio Sept 04 2010
Bob Chapman of the International Forcaster: The Coming Crash
Bob Chapman
Read about the writer, Bob Chapman, and his experience as a financial newsletter writer. Mr. Chapman is 72 years old. He was born in Boston, MA and attended Northeastern University majoring in business management. He spent three years in the U. S. Army Counterintelligence, mostly in Europe. He speaks German and French and is conversant in Spanish. He lived in Europe for six years, off and on, three years in Africa, a year in Canada and a year in the Bahamas.
Mr. Chapman became a stockbroker in 1960 and retired in 1988. For 18 of those years he owned his own brokerage firm. He was probably the largest gold and silver stockbroker in the world during that period. When he retired he had over 6,000 clients.
From 1962 through 1976 he specialized in South African gold shares. He and his family lived in Salisbury, Rhodesia (now Harare, Zimbabwe) and Johannesburg, South Africa from 1970 to 1973. During that time he did a great deal of further study into the South African mining industry.
Mr. Chapman belonged to The Traders Association for 25 years. He did all his own trading. During his South African years some was done directly through Johannesburg, but 95% was done through London brokerage firms. Hence, he has extensive contacts, both in London and on the Continent.
Starting in 1967 Mr. Chapman began writing articles on business, finance, economics and politics having been printed and reprinted over the years in over 200 publications. He owned and wrote the Gary Allen Report, which had 30,000 subscribers. He currently is owner and editor of The International Forecaster, a compendium of information on business, finance, economics and social and political issues worldwide, which reaches 10,000 investors and brokers monthly directly, and parts of his publication are picked up by 60 different websites weekly exposing his ideas to over 10 million investors a week.
In 1976, after the Soweto riots, Mr. Chapman began buying North American shares exclusively for his clients. Up to that point only a handful of American and Canadian issues interested him, due to the high dividends the South African shares had paid out over the years. Between 1976 and 1988 his business surged from 1,000 to 6,000 clients, so the bulk of his business ended up being Vancouver Stock Exchange issues. For this reason he is very conversant with the quality of management, geologists, properties and traders on today's North American scene. He is well known.
From 1976 to present he has spoke and given workshops at over 200 business conferences worldwide, and has been on radio and TV hundreds of times. Until his retirement he was always judged by the attendees to be one of the top three speakers and never once was lower than first in workshops due to his vast knowledge of the mining business and his grasp of worldwide financial markets and political scenes.
In June of 1991, at the request of business associates, and due to retirement boredom, he began writing the International Forecaster.
http://www.blogtalkradio.com/theproph...
Gold, Silver and Precious Metals Continue to Outperform the Market
Gold, Silver and Precious Metals Continue to Outperform the Market
by: Tom Cleveland, September 14, 2010
for : goldbasics.blogspot.com
From an investor perspective, the year of 2010 will go down in history as one of strange behavior, as basic time-honored correlations broke down and risk aversion seemed to grip the fragile psychology of both traders and investors alike. The threat of debt defaults from Greece and several other European member states have produced a steady drip of news on our respective foreheads since last year, while fears of a double-dip recession have blinded everyone’s vision of the road ahead.
The stars on this global stage have been Gold, Silver and other precious metals. Gold has had such incredible appreciation over the past decade that it is sometimes difficult to believe that it is not perched upon a precipice, waiting for an inevitable correction to occur. Other than general surges and minor consolidations, due more to speculation than anything else, Gold continues to outperform other basic indexes on an annual basis. Traditional correlations have also been broken in the process as the Dollar and Gold have chosen to join themselves at the hip for all of 2010, a break in the expected inverse trend.
Gold is not alone. Silver and other precious metals have also fared well over the period, although not to the same extent. Today, once again, Gold and Silver spiked up due to contrary news coming from Europe. Each metal has made significant gains during 2010, as new record highs have been set along each metal’s respective triumphal path.
The correlation in growth between both metals for the last year, as depicted in the chart above, has been quite remarkable. For the year, Gold rests at about 25% while Silver is just below 20%. The S&P 500 index has eked out an 8% gain, perhaps a little higher if dividends are thrown in, but the comparison is the reality of the moment, even after a record earnings season for the June quarter where earnings year-over-year were in the 35-40% range. More importantly, Gold and the stock index have been inversely correlated since May. The S&P 500 index just crossed its 200-day moving average, a sign of better times to come, but coincidentally enough, Gold just set a new record high in the process. Do correlations mean anything in this year of “strangeness”?
The breakdown in traditional correlations has confounded many analysts as they search for indications of how temporary these reversals might be. Currency trading has benefited from recent volatility, but choosing a currency to ride may not have the same gleam as Gold. Gold has always appreciated when the Dollar depreciates, but not so for the past year. The opposite has been true regarding the Euro and Gold, but once again, the times, they are a-changing. Gold and the greenback have be entwined in a dance for nearly ten months, while the Euro has become a wallflower searching for a potential suitor.
Risk aversion and its related flight of capital to safe havens are seen as the villains on this dance floor. Under these conditions, the primary beneficiaries are U.S. Treasury Bills and precious metals, especially Gold and Silver. Increased demand across the board has kept the Dollar and metals on their upward tracks. However, currencies do not have intrinsic value. Capital outflows may impact the relative value of the Dollar, but Gold is hardly a temporary investment.
"The question on everyone’s lips is whether now is a good time to buy
more Gold or Silver? Timing , which also applies in forex appears to be the only concern these days. Technical
indicators presently show that both metals are in an “overbought”
condition, suggesting that a small correction in price may be imminent. In
the last three weeks alone, Silver has risen 15%, while Gold marched on at
a 5% clip. A small pullback is to be expected after such impressive run
ups."
What do the fundamentals say? Here is a quick recap for Gold:
*
Intrinsic Value: There is no sign that Gold will lose its luster or safe haven status;
*
Hedge Against Inflation: Over time, interest rates in the developed world will move up as recoveries proceed. Inflation concerns in the U.K. already exist. Gold is the perfect hedge for the perfect “inflation storm” that is slowly brewing in developed countries;
*
Mining Prospects: Taxes on mining interests has not slowed exploration, but new supplies are not expected to flood the market;
*
Industrial Usage: No signs for decline foreseen in this area;
*
Current Inventories: Central banks have no reason to release or sell their massive reserves. China would gladly exchange Dollar CDs for Gold today.
The year of 2010 has confounded investors, but Gold and other precious metals continue to retain their intrinsic values and appreciate beyond everyone’s expectations. Entry timing may be the only concern at the moment.
Tom Cleveland 5218 Shirley Rd. Gainesville, GA 30506
tgcleveland@gmail.com September 14, 2010
by: Tom Cleveland, September 14, 2010
for : goldbasics.blogspot.com
From an investor perspective, the year of 2010 will go down in history as one of strange behavior, as basic time-honored correlations broke down and risk aversion seemed to grip the fragile psychology of both traders and investors alike. The threat of debt defaults from Greece and several other European member states have produced a steady drip of news on our respective foreheads since last year, while fears of a double-dip recession have blinded everyone’s vision of the road ahead.
The stars on this global stage have been Gold, Silver and other precious metals. Gold has had such incredible appreciation over the past decade that it is sometimes difficult to believe that it is not perched upon a precipice, waiting for an inevitable correction to occur. Other than general surges and minor consolidations, due more to speculation than anything else, Gold continues to outperform other basic indexes on an annual basis. Traditional correlations have also been broken in the process as the Dollar and Gold have chosen to join themselves at the hip for all of 2010, a break in the expected inverse trend.
Gold is not alone. Silver and other precious metals have also fared well over the period, although not to the same extent. Today, once again, Gold and Silver spiked up due to contrary news coming from Europe. Each metal has made significant gains during 2010, as new record highs have been set along each metal’s respective triumphal path.
The correlation in growth between both metals for the last year, as depicted in the chart above, has been quite remarkable. For the year, Gold rests at about 25% while Silver is just below 20%. The S&P 500 index has eked out an 8% gain, perhaps a little higher if dividends are thrown in, but the comparison is the reality of the moment, even after a record earnings season for the June quarter where earnings year-over-year were in the 35-40% range. More importantly, Gold and the stock index have been inversely correlated since May. The S&P 500 index just crossed its 200-day moving average, a sign of better times to come, but coincidentally enough, Gold just set a new record high in the process. Do correlations mean anything in this year of “strangeness”?
The breakdown in traditional correlations has confounded many analysts as they search for indications of how temporary these reversals might be. Currency trading has benefited from recent volatility, but choosing a currency to ride may not have the same gleam as Gold. Gold has always appreciated when the Dollar depreciates, but not so for the past year. The opposite has been true regarding the Euro and Gold, but once again, the times, they are a-changing. Gold and the greenback have be entwined in a dance for nearly ten months, while the Euro has become a wallflower searching for a potential suitor.
Risk aversion and its related flight of capital to safe havens are seen as the villains on this dance floor. Under these conditions, the primary beneficiaries are U.S. Treasury Bills and precious metals, especially Gold and Silver. Increased demand across the board has kept the Dollar and metals on their upward tracks. However, currencies do not have intrinsic value. Capital outflows may impact the relative value of the Dollar, but Gold is hardly a temporary investment.
"The question on everyone’s lips is whether now is a good time to buy
more Gold or Silver? Timing , which also applies in forex appears to be the only concern these days. Technical
indicators presently show that both metals are in an “overbought”
condition, suggesting that a small correction in price may be imminent. In
the last three weeks alone, Silver has risen 15%, while Gold marched on at
a 5% clip. A small pullback is to be expected after such impressive run
ups."
What do the fundamentals say? Here is a quick recap for Gold:
*
Intrinsic Value: There is no sign that Gold will lose its luster or safe haven status;
*
Hedge Against Inflation: Over time, interest rates in the developed world will move up as recoveries proceed. Inflation concerns in the U.K. already exist. Gold is the perfect hedge for the perfect “inflation storm” that is slowly brewing in developed countries;
*
Mining Prospects: Taxes on mining interests has not slowed exploration, but new supplies are not expected to flood the market;
*
Industrial Usage: No signs for decline foreseen in this area;
*
Current Inventories: Central banks have no reason to release or sell their massive reserves. China would gladly exchange Dollar CDs for Gold today.
The year of 2010 has confounded investors, but Gold and other precious metals continue to retain their intrinsic values and appreciate beyond everyone’s expectations. Entry timing may be the only concern at the moment.
Tom Cleveland 5218 Shirley Rd. Gainesville, GA 30506
tgcleveland@gmail.com September 14, 2010
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)
