Showing posts with label 2011 Outlook for Gold and Silver. Show all posts
Showing posts with label 2011 Outlook for Gold and Silver. Show all posts

Sunday, February 6, 2011

2011 Outlook for Gold and Silver

2011 Investment Outlook Luncheon Presentation by Nick Barisheff
Gold Outlook 2011: Irreversible Upward Pressures and the China Effect

In some parts of the world gold is viewed as the protector of wealth. In North America, gold is viewed as a speculative investment. Our economists regard a rising gold price as an admission of defeat, and their disparaging attitude toward higher gold prices took on a more desperate tone in 2010. Nevertheless, gold had another remarkable year, up 25% in 2010, its tenth straight annual gain. Meanwhile, over the same 10-year period, five major currencies -- the US and Canadian dollars, the euro, the British pound and the yen -- have lost between 70% and 80% of their value. In reality, gold is not rising; currencies are falling in value, and gold can rise as far as currencies can fall. Nick discusses the three dominant medium-term trends that pushed up gold prices in 2010 (central bank buying; movement away from the US dollar; China) as well as three longer-term, irreversible trends that will put upward pressure on the gold price for years to come (the aging population; outsourcing; peak oil). In addition to these trends, more and more investors will be competing to buy a shrinking gold supply. As safe-haven demand accelerates, there will be a transition from the $200-trillion financial asset market to the $3-trillion aboveground gold bullion market. About half of that $3 trillion is held by central banks as reserves; the remainder is privately held, and not for sale at any price. If the world's pension and hedge funds moved only 5% of their assets into gold, it would trade at over $5,000 per ounce. Nick's conclusion: Without any new financial crises, both mid- and long-term trends indicate that gold -- and silver -- will continue rising through 2011 and well beyond.

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