Oil Falls From Seven-Month High on Signs OPEC Output Climbing

By Christian Schmollinger

June 2 (Bloomberg) -- Crude oil retreated from a seven- month high in New York on signs OPEC’s output is climbing and as traders who bet on rising prices sell futures to lock in gains.

Oil jumped as much as 3.6 percent yesterday, capping a 12 percent increase since May 21, after the U.S. and China reported increases in manufacturing activity. The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries raised their production by 1.5 percent in May, according to a Bloomberg News survey.

“OPEC countries are starting to see prices at $70 and then they start exerting less discipline on the quotas,” said Ben Westmore, a minerals and energy economist at National Australia Bank Ltd. in Melbourne. “The price ran pretty high overnight so we may be seeing some profit-taking as people still consider the fundamentals quite weak.”

Crude oil for July delivery fell as much as 78 cents, or 1.1 percent, to $67.80 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. It was at $68.42 a barrel at 12:07 p.m. Singapore time. Yesterday, oil closed at $68.58 a barrel, the highest settlement since Nov. 4. Prices are up 53 percent this year.

Futures climbed yesterday on expectation that fuel demand will increase as the economy improves later this year. The Institute for Supply Management’s U.S. factory index strengthened to 42.8 from 40.1 in April and China’s Purchasing Manager’s Index showed manufacturing in May gained for a third month.

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Gold Gains to Three-Month High as Weaker Dollar Boosts Demand

By Jae Hur

June 1 (Bloomberg) -- Gold climbed to the highest in more than three months as a slumping dollar increased demand for the precious metal as a store of value. Silver gained to the highest since August.

Precious metals advanced as the dollar dropped to the lowest since Dec. 18 against a basket of six major currencies, after posting its biggest monthly loss this year in May. Silver rose 27 percent in May, the most since April 1987, and gold added 10 percent, the most since November.

“The dollar’s weakness continued to lend support to commodities, including precious metals and crude oil,” said Hiroyuki Kikukawa, general manager of research at IDO Securities Co. in Tokyo.

Gold for immediate delivery added as much as 0.7 percent to $985.70 an ounce, the highest since Feb. 24, and was at $983.51 at 1:57 p.m. in Singapore. Silver for immediate delivery climbed as much as 1.3 percent to $15.95 an ounce, the highest since Aug. 8, before trading at $15.865.

Spot silver has jumped 39 percent this year, while gold has gained 12 percent. One ounce of gold now buys about 62.1 ounces of silver, the lowest this year, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. This is down from a high of 84.39 in October, which was the most since March 1995.

“Both precious metals appeared to have been overbought,” Kikukawa said. Silver’s 14-day relative strength index, a gauge of momentum, rose above 70 on May 28, a signal some investors use to indicate prices may be about to decline. The index for gold climbed above 70 on May 29.

Record High

“Given the re-emergence of the typical inverse relationship between the dollar and gold, the likelihood of further weakness in the dollar should drive gold to a test of its 2008 record highs,” said Toby Hassall, an analyst at Commodity Warrants Australia Pty in Sydney.

Spot gold reached a record $1,032.70 on March 17, 2008.

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Dollar Weakens as Reports Spur Higher-Yielding Asset Demand

June 1 (Bloomberg) -- The dollar fell to an eight-month low versus the Australian currency and dropped against the Norwegian krone after reports in the U.S. and China showed global growth may be recovering, sparking demand for higher-yielding assets.

The Japanese yen weakened against all of the 16 most actively traded currencies, as a report showing manufacturing in China expanded for a third month encouraged Japanese investors to buy higher-yielding assets overseas. The dollar fell to the weakest level since October against the pound and the Canadian currency as stocks and commodities advanced after the U.S. manufacturing sector shrank at the slowest pace in eight months.

“This is part of the risk-appetite-recovery story,” said Jim McCormick, London-based global head of foreign exchange and local-markets strategy at Citigroup Inc., in an interview on Bloomberg Radio. “The market started to get concerned about the implications of the fiscal and monetary policies in the U.S.”

The greenback slid 1.5 percent to $1.6440 per pound at 3:30 p.m. in New York, after earlier breaching $1.64 for the first time since Oct. 31. The dollar traded at $1.4167 per euro, from $1.4158 on May 29. It touched $1.4246, the weakest level since Dec. 29.

The dollar’s decline versus the euro was capped at $1.4250, a 50 percent retracement of the drop from the record low of $1.6038 on July 15, to about $1.25 in March, according to Brian Dolan, chief currency strategist at FOREX.com, a unit of online currency trading firm Gain Capital in Bedminster, New Jersey.

“The euro-dollar is in consolidation,” said Dolan. “People will continue to buy the euro on dips.”

Commodity Currencies

The Japanese yen touched 78.33 versus the Australian dollar and 63.02 against the New Zealand dollar, the lowest levels since October, as investors resumed carry trades, in which they buy higher-yielding assets with funds borrowed in low-interest- rate countries. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index rose 2.6 percent.

Against the dollar, the yen declined 1.4 percent to 96.72, from 95.34 at the end of last week. The Japanese currency reached 137.24 per euro, the lowest since April 6.

The Japanese currency declined against 15 of the 16 most actively traded currencies in the past three months, losing at least 20 percent versus the Brazilian real, the Australian and New Zealand’s dollars, South African rand and the Korean won. Only the dollar did worse.

Currencies of commodity producers led the rally against the dollar today after crude oil advanced as much as 3 percent to $68.29 a barrel.

Norway’s krone appreciated 1.4 percent versus the dollar to 6.2 krone, and touched 6.17, the strongest level since Oct. 14. The Australian dollar reached 81.38 U.S. cents, the strongest since September, while the Canadian dollar reached an eight- month high of C$1.0785. Crude oil is the largest export in Norway. Raw materials account for more than half of exports in Australia and Canada.

Dollar Index

“Commodity currencies are the best place to be, given the signs of the global economic recovery,” said Samarjit Shankar, director of global strategy for the Global Markets group in Boston at Bank of New York Mellon Corp.

The Dollar Index declined to the lowest level this year as the U.S. government said it will own a majority of General Motors Corp. after the carmaker filed for bankruptcy, heightening concern about record debt sales to fund bailout packages and economic stimulus programs. The index, used by the ICE to track the greenback against the euro, yen, pound, Swiss franc, Canadian dollar and Swedish krona, fell as much as 1 percent to 78.59, the lowest since Dec. 18.

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